The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England has announced its first interest rate reduction in over four years, reducing rates from 5.25% to 5.0%. The decision will be a source of relief for numerous homeowners and debtors, as rates have been maintained at a 16-year high since August 2023.
There was genuine ambiguity among economists and investors in the lead-up to today’s meeting, as markets priced in less than a 60% chance of a cut on the day, despite the fact that interest rate cuts have been considered a possibility for several months.
A finely balanced decision
The MPC members were similarly divided on the necessity of a reduction, with five members supporting it and four voting against it. They have encountered difficulty in sorting out certain divergent tendencies in the inflation picture.
Although headline inflation exceeded the Bank of England’s 2% target for two consecutive months, it is anticipated to increase once more later this year as a result of elevated energy prices. The central bank’s forecasts have been surpassed by services prices, which have increased at an annual rate of 5.7%. Additionally, wage growth continues to exceed inflation.
In recent months, the UK economy has been stronger than anticipated in terms of growth, despite the fact that it remains relatively weak. However, the prognosis is more ambiguous due to disappointing retail sales and softer labor market data.
Inflation risks remain
Overall, the MPC made a more optimistic assessment of inflation by deciding to reduce rates. Nevertheless, the accompanying statement was markedly cautious, acknowledging that inflation risks have not yet completely dissipated: “The restrictive stance of monetary policy is anticipated to result in the gradual fading of domestic inflationary persistence over the next few years.” Nevertheless, there is a possibility that inflationary pressures resulting from second-round effects will be more enduring in the medium term. One
The cut was also described as a reduction in restrictiveness, rather than monetary easing, in the statement: “It was appropriate to slightly reduce the degree of policy restrictiveness.” The effects of previous external disruptions had diminished, and there had been some progress in mitigating the risks of inflation persistence. Two This meticulous phrasing implies a reluctance to make any additional cutbacks at this time.
The cautious disposition of the Bank of England is not exclusive. At its meeting this week, the US Federal Reserve maintained its stance of maintaining interest rates on hold. However, it hinted that a rate cut in September is feasible if the data continues to improve. In June, the European Central Bank made the decision to reduce rates; however, concerns regarding inflation in the services sector in the region led to the bank maintaining rates on hold in July.
Looking ahead
The query that many will be asking is whether there are additional cuts to come or if this is a case of “one and done.” At today’s press conference, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey responded directly to this inquiry by stating that he does not have an opinion on the trajectory of interest rates and that the decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. He was unequivocal about the necessity of refraining from reducing rates “too rapidly or too much”3 in order to maintain inflation control.
Markets are currently anticipating two additional rate decreases by the end of the year, reflecting a more optimistic outlook. We anticipate that the MPC will maintain rates at their September meeting, and then reduce them to 4.75% in November. Nevertheless, the outcome of any decisions will be contingent upon the evolution of the inflation and growth outlook, and there is a significant possibility of significant change in the months ahead. We will continue to inform you of any new developments.